2014-2024 ARC-CO and PLC Payments: Improving Farmers’ Decision Making

[Viable Food News Desk]

Publisher: farmdoc daily
Published: August 10, 2026
Source: Read at farmdoc daily
Category: Food Access

A national US analysis found that farmers would have received 97% of potential ARC-CO and PLC payments from 2014-2024 if they had followed a decision guide based on the ratio of the US January cash price to the next crop year's effective reference price. When the ratio was below 90%, the guide correctly predicted PLC would pay more 84% of the time, and payments reached 99.7% of the maximum possible. When the ratio exceeded 115%, the guide correctly predicted ARC-CO would pay more 100% of the time, with payments at 100% of the maximum possible. For ratios between 90% and 115%, the guide produced 93% of maximum possible payments across 57 observations, even though ARC-CO and PLC payments averaged $13 and $16 per base acre.

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